Astros Bats Have Been Cold in July, but the Pitching Has Picked Up the Slack

 After today's game, Chandler Rome noted how much the Astros bats have been slumping in July. 

 Rome has been noting the Astros offensive woes recently. Before the Rangers series, he compared the Astros offensive output in July to its output in June. 

After the White Sox series, Rome first noted the Astros offensive struggles in June.  

That tweet teases an article headlined "what's wrong with the offense?" 

Read the replies for each of these tweets by Rome and one can find Astro fans annoyed that a beat reporter would present important facts about their team.  Today's tweet drew a set of tweets annoyed that Rome would says something negative on the heels of a 3 game sweep. 

This conflict between the beat reporter's view and that of fans is common, and usually reflects the fact that fans don't understand well what the job of a reporter is or how the value of neutrality in journalism is supposed to work. 

But this difference also shows a difference between how the Astro bats are performing--poorly--and how the team is doing. The Astros are 13-6 in the month of July despite the offensive woes. The team has gained 5 games on the Oakland As in the AL West standings, and now have a 5 1/2 game lead in the division. They've increased their odds of winning the AL West from definitely a favorite (79.8% on July 1) to almost a sure thing (92.5% before today's games)

The Astros have won in large part because their pitching staff has picked up the slack while the offense has been in the freezer. The Astros pitching staff has a 3.35 ERA in July, 3rd best in MLB. 

Their peripheral numbers are also excellent in the month of July:

  • 4th in MLB with 9.78 K
  • 5th in HR/9 at 1.01. 
  • 4th in Batting Average Against at .219
  • 9th in FIP at 3.84
The Astros play excellent defense behind their pitching staff. The Astros have nudged into the MLB lead in Defensive Runs Saved at 49. 

Put these two together, and the Astros have been excellent at preventing runs in July. They have given up 3.37 runs per game in the month. They do not have a shutout, but have allowed 1 run on 4 occasions (including the last 2 games against the Rangers) and 2 runs on 3 occasions. 

Zack Greinke got the win today over the Rangers

As a result of the excellent run prevention, the Astros good record in July 13-6 is not a fluke caused by luck and victories in close games. The Astros Pythagorean (or expected) winning percentage for July--which is determined by the number of runs scored and allowed--is .616. This would translate to a 12-7 record, only 1 game worse than their actual record. 
'
The bats have indeed been cold this July, but that happens in small samples of the baseball season. They are not this bad. Nor are they as good as their .294/.378/.488 slash line in June. But give it enough time, and the bats will find their level, which is one of the small handful of best offenses in baseball.

But the Astros are a deep team. Their pitching has been picking up their hitting this month. The hitting has picked up their pitching already this season. In the end, good teams have lots of good players, so that when a few are slumping, others can take up the slack. 

That's what's happening here. 

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